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The US media defines an ‘October surprise’, a term coined by Reagan campaign manager William Casey in 1980, as a game-changing event ahead of Election Day. But can a bombshell really mean victory for one candidate? What are the most famous October surprises? • Founding Fathers' dirty campaign: The first dates back to aggressive smear campaigns between then-president John Adams and his rival and former vice-president Thomas Jefferson in 1800. Political pamphleteer and journalist James Callender, allegedly hired by Jefferson, launched a print campaign against Adams before the election, tipping the balance.