Michael Collins
Syrian troops along with their Hezbollah allies are in control of the key city of al-Qusayr. The battle began three weeks ago with initial victories by the Syrian government in and around the city of 30,000. Rebel fighters sought reinforcements with some predicting a protracted battle. The reinforcements came, "hundreds of rebel reinforcements professing close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood," but the effort was to no avail. The professional Syrian Army with its best troops and the urban warfare specialists, Hezbollah, prevailed just hours ago.

Due to this victory, the Syrians are readying for major battles in Aleppo. Up to 4,000 Hezbollah fighters moved north to Aleppo before fighting was complete in Qusayr. This was a clue that government forces were confident of a quick victory in the besieged city and a clear indication of the next objective. Aleppo, a city of 2 million, is Syria's commercial center and vital to any retention of national integrity for a Syrian state.

Events are breaking in the direction of the government over the past few days. The Lebanon rebel supply route is closed for now. This corridor was the "principal transit point for weapons and fighters from Lebanon."

In addition, the Turkish government's intense involvement on the side of Syrian rebels will be difficult to maintain. Public opinion in Turkey opposed military involvement, including the supplies and intelligence offered from the start of the rebellion to date. Terrorist bombings in southern Turkey created further complications.

Nearly one hundred civilians were killed in terrorist bombings in two towns along the Turkey-Syria border. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan blamed the Syria government immediately for the terrorist acts. The towns people and many throughout Turkey blamed the the Erdogan government's robust support of the rebels. That complaint is part of the larger hostility toward the often angry Erdogan leading to major protests and civil insurrection in Istanbul and other major Turkish cities.

Erdogan is dealing from a weak position with the Turkish public. His government just issued apologies to protestors for the beatings and tear gassing delivered by government police. The regime would take a grave risk to further anger the public by pursuing an aggressive policy against Syria, including conspicuous provision of supplies and free passes for foreign fighters.

All of a sudden, we're looking at a battle for Syria's most important city with the odds in favor of the Syrian government. The Syrian Army cut off one major supply route and another, the Turkish border north of Aleppo, is questionable. The rebels on the ground in Syria are fighting with their organizational representatives trying to plan for a Geneva peace conference. The United States just halved its promised $250 million in nonlethal aid and the supply of weapons is not enough, according to the rebels.

What will the United States and the NATO neocolonialists do if their Syria project fails? Rebuilding contracts in Syria are out of the question.

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Also see: What if the Empire Project Fails in Syria, The Agonist, August 14, 201 and
The Battle of al Qusayr and Syria’s dim future, The Agonist, June 3, 2013