By Eric Zuesse

A news report that includes an alleged leaked document from the head of the Ukrainian Security Service, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko, seems to indicate that the ethnic-cleansing operation by the Obama-coup-installed Ukrainian government is now collapsing, and that Obama’s forces in Ukraine (that Government’s soldiers) are fleeing for their lives. Headlining, “Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army – Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014,” the alleged document includes this alleged report to Ukrainian President Petro A. Poroshenko:

“In the period from July 14th to 19th, 2014 we witnessed a catastrophic increase (of 3473 people, or 47%) in the number of deserters in the units of the Army and the National Guard – in comparison with last week’s numbers (1847 people, 25%).
 Apart from that, during the stated period the number of missing in action had increased as well (1344 people, 47%, last week – 344 people, 10%). This phenomenon is connected to increased activity of the enemy in the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions as well as to the increase in the numbers of casualties in the ranks of the above-mentioned structures. 
This fact [negatively] influences the combat-worthiness of the personnel and makes continuation of the ATO [Anti-Terrorist Operation, their euphemism for the ethnic-cleansing operation] impossible. … I estimate that 2/3 of the active combat military units currently participating in the ATO will simply cease to exist in as little as 4 to 5 days.”

It includes also what alleges to be a report by Arsen Avakov, Minister of Interior, and co-mastermind (along with oligarch Ihor Kolomoysky) of the May 2nd burning-alive of regime opponents inside the Odessa Trade Unions Building, which was the event that commenced the civil war. It says that “for the period July 9-15,” there were “Total Ukrainian Losses” of 1600 “Killed in Action,” and 4723 “Wounded in Action,” while there were “Total Militia Losses” (their enemies) of 48 killed in action, and 64 wounded in action.

This was alleged to be the report filed immediately prior to Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s July 24th announcement of his resignation due to the collapse of negotiations over the crucial IMF loans, and over the terms of privatizing fracking industry..

If these things are true, then not only is there no money with which to pay troops, but troops are fleeing for their lives. Nalyvaichenko: “I am proposing that we perform a withdrawal maneuver.”

However, Republicans are trying to throw Obama a hail-Mary pass to save the day for his Ukrainian coup-regime: U.S. Senate Bill 2277, with 26 sponsors, all of whom are Republicans, is now in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Paul Craig Roberts says that “If the bill passes, which it likely will, Washington becomes empowered to bypass NATO and to grant the status of ‘allied nation’ to Ukraine independently of NATO membership. By so doing, Washington can send troops to Ukraine and thereby commit NATO to a war with Russia” (which has been Obama’s objective all along).

If Paul Roberts is correct that this all-Republican bill “likely will” pass the currently Democratic-majority Senate, then it will also easily pass the Republican-majority House and so win Obama’s eager signature and become law. I doubt that there are enough Republican “Democrats” in the Senate to pass it, but perhaps I am wrong and Roberts is right.

My own sense of the situation is instead that Obama’s Ukrainian ploy is simply going down in flames.

But, we shall see.

If things are going in Ukraine the way that I think they are, then there would be no excuse whatsoever for any congressional Democrat who avoids introducing or supporting a resolution to impeach Obama; and that, in turn (a Democratic impeachment of Obama) would be the only way to avoid having the Senate being taken over by the Republicans, and Obama ruling as President in his final two years with both houses of Congress being under Republican control.

That’s what’s important to avoid, because if Republicans control both houses, then the extremist conservative (though rhetorically liberal) Obama will finally be free to reign as the extremist conservative President that he has always hoped he would have the opportunity to be, and he would then end his Presidency in a blaze of conservative legislative glory. But if his intervention in Ukraine will soon be turning that country into two or three utterly failed states, as I expect, then that blatantly clear disaster might prevent him from having any power at all, and it could even end up actually enabling him to be impeached and the Democratic Party thus salvaged, instead of going down along with him in flames (as will be the case if Democrats fail to impeach him).

UPDATE (July 29th): I had written this article on July 26th but not published it until now, because I wasn’t sufficiently confident of the document’s authenticity. However, during the subsequent days, there has been the following new information coming in, which suggests to me that there are sufficient grounds for the document’s authenticity, so as finally to publish it:

“URGENT: UPDATED – Warning of Impending Terrorist Acts by the Kiev Junta, July 26, 2014″ presents the type of narrative follow-up that is consistent with desperation on the part of Obama’s forces, particularly on the part of Ihor Kolomoysky, whom Obama’s regime made into the co-mastermind (along with Arsen Avakov) of the ethnic-cleansing campaign. (Kolomoysky has hired Joe Biden’s son as a lawyer and made him a board member of one the oligarch’s gas-operations that operates in the conflict-zone. Both Kolomoysky and Avakov were chosen for their positions by Victoria Nuland, Obama’s agent, who basically took the advice of Yulia Tymoshenko, “the Gas Princess.”) Here is the July 26th statement:

Kolomoiskiy and the Kiev Junta have prepared groups of Russian-speaking militants who, under the guise of militiamen, will organize a “night of long knives” in Pavlograd. Hundreds of peaceful civilians will die! This will be staged as “payback” for those who died in the Lugansk and the Donetsk Republics.

False witnesses, who will confirm this, have already been prepared. It may happen as soon as this night! The Nazis should not be permitted to kill with impunity!

Please repost this message to all your acquaintances and love ones, call them! The more people know about this, the lower the likelihood that it will happen!

This was accompanied by an address to residents in the area, telling them what to do, and explaining that only if the residents are duly prepared against the attack can there be any likelihood of its being called off. The address mentions that the forewarning came via unnamed officials in Kiev, who are “concerned about their future … after putchists in Kiev would inevitably fall,” or, in other words, who fear that they will become scapegoats for the atrocities after defeat, which they now expect. “The operation, codenamed ‘slept at Temyravi’ — ‘Flash in the Dark’ — would be supervised by an … SBU (Ukrainian State Security) Major calling himself Alexey Nikonov, who is close to Mr. Nalivaichenko,” who is the signatory shown on the alleged report to Poroshenko.

Thus far, that attack hasn’t happened. This doesn’t mean it wasn’t planned. What it means is that any “false flag” operation can only fail if it’s suspected in advance.

This video and message were spread in the target region. It can’t be fake, because then the people living there would know that they’re being lied to by their own military, which would be a terribly stupid thing to do.

I have seen other evidence as well. Igor Strelkov, the commander over the resistance forces, has not been shy in the past to admit when he has been pessimistic. However, in his report on July 27th, he says:

Recently, we have been observing a sharp increase in the number of servicemen within the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces unwilling to continue fighting a fratricidal war against their own people and refusing to obey the criminal orders of their command. Despite being subjected to various types of punishment by their commanders and to violent duress by the Nazis, all the way up to extrajudicial executions, such servicemen, nevertheless, do not surrender to the forces of the DPR Militia, fearful of being subjected to repressions by the latter. Guided by considerations of humanity in the name of stopping the bloodshed and saving the lives of Ukrainian servicemen, who were forcibly sent into the area of the fratricidal war,

I HEREBY ORDER:

All the commanders and the fighters of the forces of the DPR Militia not to open fire on groups or individual servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that have raised a white flag or signified their intention to surrender in another manner. After disarmament and inspection to ensure that they carry no weapons, such persons are to be permitted through the battle ranks of the Militia and concentrated in special collection points for further transportation to the deep rear under guard. Those persons are to be assigned the status of POW [Prisoners of War].

In accordance with the Geneva Conventions “Rules of Conducting Warfare”, …

This does not sound like the statement by a pessimistic general.

And, clearly, a pessimistic general is like this, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, who resigns on July 24th, and says:

You ought, dear colleagues, to understand me correctly. Our government currently has no answer to the question, “With what should we pay salaries?” With what should I fuel the APCs [Armored Personnel Carriers] tomorrow morning? How can I pay the people who died, and their families? From where? With what money? How should we finance the Army and the Armed Forces? How do we not demoralize the spirit.

Republicans in the U.S. Congress are trying to pass S. 2277, a Senate bill with 26 co-sponsors, none of whom are Democrats, all of whom are Republican Senators, though the New York Times says it’s “bipartisan,” and which would authorize Obama to provide direct military assistance to the Ukrainian Government, and U.S. weapons, to salvage the Ukrainian nazis and their effort to ethnically cleanse Ukraine’s southeast.

Only if the Republicans win both houses of Congress in the November elections, as is predicted by 6 to 1 odds to occur, can Obama have even a chance to salvage his attempt to impose fascism on the entire world. If Democrats retain control of the Senate, then Obama’s Presidency, his dreams of imposing global fascism, will effectively be over.

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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They're Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of Christ's Ventriloquists: The Event that Created Christianity.