Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Putin prefers dealing with the “devils that he knows” than risking a repeat of Trump’s unpredictability.

Putin confirmed on Thursday during the Eastern Economic Forum’s plenary session that his previously stated support for Biden now extends to Kamala, yet friends like the famous dissident Kim Dotcom and foes like the BBC’s Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg don’t believe him.

The first tweeted that it’s a “Grandmaster Chess” move on the Russian leader’s part while the second speculated that this is being done to discredit the Democrats. The reality though is that Putin is being sincere. It was explained earlier this year that “It’s Reasonable For Putin To Prefer Biden Over Trump” because...

“1) Biden has the support of the ‘deep state’s’ ruling liberal-globalists; 2) this faction is expected to remain in power even if Trump wins; and 3) they could carry out more anti-Russian provocations to discredit him in that case just like last time.” This insight still holds true and accounts for why he now supports Kamala since nothing has changed in the six months since he publicly backed Biden.

Friends struggle to accept this since they favor Trump’s policy towards the Ukrainian Conflict, hence why they believe that Putin does too, while foes are convinced that Putin helped Trump win in 2016 and is therefore trying to help him again by discrediting the Democrats with his endorsement of Kamala. What neither can understand is that Putin is an old-school statesman who appreciates predictability, especially among his geopolitical adversaries, and doesn’t like the chaos that accompanied Trump’s first term.

The permanent members of the US’ military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) whose foreign policy interests are represented by Kamala’s platform explicitly prioritize containing Russia over China. Those whose interests are represented by Trump’s platform agree with him that China’s containment should be prioritized over Russia’s, but there are still quite a few “Republicans-In-Name-Only” (RINOs) among them who could once again sabotage his plans just like they did last time.

From Russia’s perspective, it’s better for the US to stay the course in attempting to contain it through Ukraine and then decisively foil this plot than to let the US retreat, lick its wounds, and then possibly resume hostilities at a later time once its national strength that’s been sapped by this conflict recovers. There’s no credible indication that Trump would force Ukraine to agree to Russia’s demands for ending the conflict either, thus meaning that the US would then put more pressure on Russia to compromise.

To be sure, Putin has signaled that he’s open to compromising, but what Trump has in mind is to coerce a compromise from both him and Zelensky. It’s therefore possible that some of what he envisages won’t align with Russian interests and might even contradict them, in which case he could redouble support for Ukraine as punishment for Russia refusing to agree to whatever “deal of the century” he proposes. Putin would prefer to avoid that scenario and continue dealing with “devils that he knows” instead.

He and his country’s own “deep state” now understand America’s ruling liberal-globalist “deep state” much better than they do those members of the former who are more aligned with Trump’s thinking. Russia has accordingly formulated policy with the expectation that the US’ policies towards this conflict won’t change, and it doesn’t want to be caught off guard by whatever Trump’s proposed deal might be. He hasn’t articulated it in detail so it’s anyone’s guess what he wants to do or could be influenced to do.

It's therefore much better for Russia keep everything the way that it is with the Democrats than to risk some sudden surprises from Trump that could result in either coercing Putin into an uncomfortable compromise or punishing his country for rejecting the deal that’s ultimately offered. None of this is to imply that Putin is against Trump per se, and he might even be able to reach a mutually acceptable compromise with him, but he’d rather not rock the boat while Russia is winning.


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