by Michel Chossudovsky

Biased Predictions

What is the precise nature of the data transmitted by the states to the CDC? The CDC calls for the transmission of "aggregate national reports of hospitalizations and deaths".

If the information is conceptually incorrect or incomplete at the outset, predictions and/or simulations will be inevitably be biased.

Without systematic lab confirmation, it is impossible to specify the nature of the virus because the symptoms of H1N1 are broadly similar to those of common influenza. In other words, do the data collected and transmitted by the states to the CDC confirm cases of H1N1 swine flu or do they indicate the prevalence of seasonal influenza?

The CDC posits that the data sent to them by the states is "underestimated". It then hikes up these figures of "unconfirmed" cases, many of which are cases of seasonal influenza. The "corrected figures" are then inserted into the model:

Using this approach [CDC model], it is estimated that more than one million people became ill with novel H1N1 flu between April and June 2009 in the United States. The details of this model and the modeling study will be submitted for publication in a peer reviewed journal. (Ibid)

The model is then used to predict the spread of swine flu and to justify a national health emergency. "Swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren't successful." (Official Statement of the US Administration, Associated Press, 24 July 2009).

Anybody who is familiar with model building and computer simulations, is acutely aware that if the data and assumptions which are fed into the model are incorrect at the outset, the results will inevitably be biased.

What we are dealing with is a process of statistical manipulation, which has far-reaching implications and which could potentially create an atmosphere of panic, particularly if it is coupled, as in the UK, with announcements that "mass graves are being set up to deal with a rising death toll.

Vaccination

The Atlanta based CDC's model's simulations and predictions as to the spread of H1N1 swine flu are then used to plan the implementation of a nationwide vaccination program.

Based on the model's "predictions", mass vaccination of half of the US population is required, with the possible provision for quarantines under civilian and/or military jurisdiction. In the case of the United Kingdom, confirmed by British press reports, the government has predicted a rising death toll requiring the provision of mass graves.

According to reports, the US government expects to have 85 million doses of the new vaccine by the end of October. In total, the US government has ordered 195 million doses from Big Pharma.

"Recommendation: Priority groups to receive the novel H1N1 vaccine

On July 29, 2009, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)—an advisory committee to CDC—recommended that novel H1N1 flu vaccine be made available first to the following five groups (News Release)

Pregnant women Health care workers and emergency medical responders

People caring for infants under 6 months of age

Children and young adults from 6 months to 24 years People aged 25 to 64 years with underlying medical conditions (e.g. asthma, diabetes)

Combined, these groups would equal approximately 159 million individuals." (See Flu.gov: Tests, Vaccines, Medications, & Masks

According to the WHO, Western countries have already ordered one billion doses of the vaccine.

"Northern hemisphere countries have so far ordered more than one billion doses of swine flu vaccine, the World Health Organisation said Tuesday, sparking warnings over shortages," Agence France-Presse reports. While some countries, including Greece, The Netherlands, Canada and Israel, have ordered enough vaccine to inoculate their citizens, "[o]thers, such as Germany, the United States, Britain and France, have put in orders that would cover between 30 and 78 percent of people," (AFP, August 19, 2009).

The WHO has made similar predictions: "Vaccine makers could produce 4.9 billion pandemic flu shots per year in the best-case scenario", Margaret Chan, Director-General, World Health Organization (WHO), quoted by Reuters, 21 July 2009)

The United Kingdom: "Suspected Cases" versus "Confirmed Cases"

Even prior to the WHO decision to suspend reporting and compilation of confirmed cases, the process of data collection in the UK revealed some highly unusual patterns.

"There are big gaps in UK data on swine flu, many of them because so few virological confirmations of H1N1 seem to be being undertaken anywhere. But virology matters - and if more tests had been done, we might begin to understand why the number of people in hospital for swine flu in England is so much greater than in Scotland." Where have all the virologists gone? | Straight Statistics

In Scotland, the collection of data was based on "confirmed cases" (lab testing), whereas in England it was based on "suspected cases" (no lab testing). In both cases, we are dealing with hospitalization. For the same time period, according to the study, England had 3,906 incident hospitalizations for "suspect swine-flu", compared with Scotland’s 43 for "confirmed H1N1".

England has approximately ten times more population than Scotland. On a per capita basis, however, there are 9.1 times more people in England with "suspected H1N1" flu than in Scotland, based on "confirmed cases": 43 confirmed cases in Scotland, 3906 in England (suspected cases), a ratio of more than 1 to 9.

Has the H1N1 epidemic "evolved differently in Scotland and England, in extent and/or timing."? There is no evidence to this effect. Or is this discrepancy of 90 to 1, partially the result of bias in the data for England which is based on "suspected cases". Where have all the virologists gone? | Straight StatisticsSee also Call for more H1N1 data | Straight Statistics

It is on the basis of these "suspected cases" that unsubstantiated and irresponsible statements are being made by senior government health officials.

What this implies is that the hospital based data on "suspected cases" referred to above, which was already the source of bias is no longer being collected by health personnel.

Self-Categorization

In Britain, the collection of "suspected cases" (which is known to be biased) was abandoned in favor of a system which does not require a diagnosis by a health professional, nor the testing of a lab specimens.

Since the WHO ruling on July 10, establishing new guidelines for data collection, the British authorities no longer focus on hospital based "suspected cases", they are now collecting the data through "dedicated call centres".

They have launched a national service where if you have flu like symptoms, you can call up dedicated call centres or check online whether you have swine flu. So, you don't have to go to your GP, you can access antivirals quickly and don't infect others by travelling around. (a href="http://www.ndtv.com/news/world/most_rapid_spread_of_h1n1_virus_in_uk.php" target="_blank">Most rapid spread of H1N1 virus in UK)

In Britain, the transition has been from "confirmed cases" (lab confirmation) to "suspected cases" (established by health professional, not requiring testing) to "self categorization"

As the pandemic progresses, the process of data collection becomes increasingly loose and unprofessional. One would normally expect the opposite, that following the announcement of Worldwide level 6 pandemic, that the process of data collection would be developed and improved as means to formulating a public health action plan.

The process of data collection under the National Pandemic Flu Service is now based on "self-assessment" or self-categorization. Anybody who thinks he/she has flu-like symptoms can decide whether he/she is infected with the H1N1 virus, without the intermediation of health professionals and without even seeing a doctor. You can do it on the internet or by calling up the phone help line:

"The [British] National Pandemic Flu Service is a self-care service that will assess your symptoms and, if required, provide an authorisation number which can be used to collect antiviral medication from a local collection point. For those who do not have internet access, the same service can be accessed by telephone"

Typical symptoms: sudden fever (38C or above) and sudden cough

1. Other symptoms include: Tiredness and chills
2. Headache, sore throat, runny nose and sneezing
3. Stomach upset, loss of appetite, diarrhoea
4. Aching muscles, limb or joint pain
   Source: NHS and BBC.

The moment you enter your name into the system over the internet or by phone, which allows you to collect anti-viral medication (e.g. tamiflu), you may be categorized as a suspected or probable case of H1N1. (see the UK National Pandemic Flu Service guidelines in Annex 1 below)

As discussed in the England versus Scotland analysis, there is already a 9 to 1 discrepancy between "suspected" and "confirmed" cases, both of which are hospital based.

The system of data collection in the UK through "self-categorization" has no scientific basis whatsoever. It is totally meaningless, given the fact that the H1N1 has the same symptoms as seasonal influenza. (We have, however, not been able to ascertain at the stage the extent to which the self-assessment information is being tabulated and used to establish trends pertaining to the H1N1 flu pandemic)

The pattern in other countries differs from that outlined in relation to Britain. In the US, a system of testing at the state level still prevails.

Concluding Remarks

Reports from Britain by prominent physicians (to the author) suggest that doctors and epidemiologists in the UK are being threatened that if they speak out and reveal the falsehoods. They risk being fired by the National Health authorities.

It is essential that physicians, epidemiologists and health workers speak out through their respective associations and refute the statements of government health officials who are tacitly acting on behalf of Big Pharma, denounce the manipulation of the data and warn the public on the dangers of untested vaccines, which are now being enforced on the public.

What we are dealing with is a big lie. A process of generating fake data which is then used to justify a nationwide vaccination program.

The political and corporate interests behind this Worldwide public health emergency must be the target of citizens' actions.

This public health emergency is not intended to protect humanity.

The World is at the crossroads of a major economic and social crisis. The Worldwide public health emergency serves to divert public opinion from the real crisis which is affecting the World's people. This crisis is characterised by rising poverty and unemployment an the collapse in social services, not to mention a a US-NATO multitrillion dollar high tech "war without borders" which includes the preemptive "first strike" use of nuclear weapons.

The dramatic causes and consequences of the "real crisis" which in real sense threaten the future of humanity must remain unheralded. Both the Economic Crisis and the Middle East Central Asian war are the object of routine and persistent media distortion and camouflage. In contrast, the H1N1 swine flu --despite its relatively mild and benign impacts-- is depicted as major "Save the World" endeavor.

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Author and economics professor Michel Chossudovsky is Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization, Montreal, He has taught at universities and academic institutions in North America, Western Europe, Latin America, Asia and the Pacific. He has also worked as a consultant on issues pertaining to public health and the economics of health for the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). He has also acted as adviser to governments of developing countries.

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ANNEX 1

The guidelines of UK National Pandemic Flu Service are indicated below:

If you have flu-like symptoms and are concerned that you may have swine flu:

- you have a serious underlying illness

- you are pregnant

- you have a sick child under one year old

- your condition suddenly gets much worse

- your condition is still getting worse after seven days (or five days for a child)

Note: The National Pandemic Flu Service is a self-care service that will asses your symptoms and, if required, provide an authorisation number which can be used to collect antiviral medication from a local collection point. For those who do not have internet access, the same service can be accessed by telephone on:

For more information on the National Pandemic Flu Service go to Flu Service – Q&A

Key actions

Swine flu is spreading fast in the UK. Prepare now by:

Note: If you have elderly or vulnerable neighbours please check on them. They may need your help but be reluctant to ask for it. It is important you do what you can.

Source Swine flu alert from the NHS

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© Copyright Michel Chossudovsky, GlobalResearch.ca, 2009 URL of this article: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20090825&articleId=14901 | www.GlobalResearch.ca For media inquiries: crgeditor@yahoo.com The Economic Depression was predicted in Michel Chossudovsky's 2003 best-seller The Globalization of Poverty and the New World Order

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