By Geopoliticalmonitor.com

Monday’s dual suicide bombing attack on the Moscow Metro will have profound consequences for Russian domestic politics. 

It didn’t take long for the FSB to state the obvious: that a group from the North Caucasus is the likely culprit behind Monday’s bombings that killed 38 people during morning rush hour. Chechen rebel leaders such as Doku Umarov have warned that they will be expanding their field of operations into Russian territory as recent as last February. Moreover, early tests on various body fragments recovered from the two female suicide bombers have corroborated that they were native to the North Caucasus.

Even if the attacks go unclaimed by major rebel groups operating out of the North Caucasus, blowback will be doubtlessly be directed at Muslim populations living in Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia, simply because it is politically expedient to do so. 

The fundamental impact of these bombings will be their effect on the power dynamics that exist between President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 

Prime Minister Putin’s primary appeal stems from the fact that he is seen as a ‘strongman’ who will stand up to Russia’s enemies, whether in the form of NATO encroachment or the enemies within. Indeed, he has already pledged to ‘destroy’ those responsible for Monday’s bombings. This would not be the first time that suicide bombings were manipulated to achieve political ends. In 1999, Suicide attacks served to legitimize the Russian invasion of Chechnya during the Second Chechen War- a conflict that boosted then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s popularity considerably. 

These latest bombings will serve to revitalize Putin, whose military image was starting to lose its luster given the litany of economic and social problems Russia is facing. His strong siloviki connections will also receive a boost, as the Russian population will be demanding a strong military response in the North Caucasus. 

Just as these bombings are a potential boon to Prime Minister Putin, the opposite is true of President Dmitry Medvedev. While both men had been hovering around an 80 percent approval rating before the bombings, President Medvedev’s image as a technocrat who exists outside the siloviki will hurt him moving forward. In many ways, Medvedev plays yin to Putin’s yang, and his economic stewardship and liberal policies will fast be forgotten as the public demands retribution in the North Caucuses. 

Although the next Russian presidential elections won’t be held until 2012, Monday’s bombings will affect critical behind-the-scene power dynamics. Medvedev’s slow and steady accumulation of personal power and authority will be halted, if not reversed, taking a back seat to Putin’s siloviki clique. 

Vladimir Putin’s re-assertion of himself over the Russian duumvirate will have geopolitical reverberations. Recent gains in US-Russian relations, which have produced among other things an agreement on nuclear reductions, may be reversed as an internal siege mentality often translates into bellicose foreign policy. Georgia and Ukraine may also experience blowback if Vladimir Putin continues to re-assert historic Russian spheres of influence in order to buttress his ‘strongman’ credentials. Monday’s events will indirectly feed into the perception that Russia needs to rely on the strength of military might in order to regain its former superpower glory; much to the detriment of diplomacy and compromise. 

In sum, the most likely consequence of Monday’s bombings will be some form of a new military campaign in the North Caucuses and a swing back towards the Soviet politics of the past.

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By Geopoliticalmonitor.com