by Stephen Lendman

In 1980, pioneer trends strategist Gerald Celente founded The Trends Research Institute. He also authored Trends 2000 and publishes quarterly Trends Journal updates, providing timely, comprehensive, accurate business, economic, political, social, technology, and other forecasts on "over 300 different trend categories."

His "1st Great War of the 21st Century" was just released, a comprehensive analysis discussed below, including facts like "(o)nly 45.4 percent of Americans had jobs in 2010, the lowest rate since 1983 and down from a 49.3 percent in 2000. Last year, just 66.8 percent of American men had jobs, the lowest on record."

Because of high unemployment and rising prices, especially affecting food, energy and healthcare, "the natives were more than just restless, they were in revolt." No longer believing rosy scenarios, "they took to the streets and manned the barricades," more abroad than at home.

It fulfilled the beginning of a Trends Journal prediction: "Off With Their Heads 2.0," saying:

"As long as economies decline, unemployment rises, taxes are raised while services are cut, and those at the top get richer and ever more powerful, what happened in Tunisia" will spread globally.

Years from now, this tiny MENA nation (Middle East/North Africa) fired "the first real shot of 'The 1st Great War of the 21st Century' " over poverty and democratic reform, not religion. Except for an insurgency/now imperial war in Libya, popular uprisings then engulfed the entire region.

In fact, however, in 2010, public outrage erupted earlier in, and continued sporadically in Greece, France, Britain, Iceland, and elsewhere over bread and butter issues, the same ones affecting billions.

However, the common "recipe for social upheaval" exists globally, including poverty, unemployment, rising prices, high-level corruption, and unresponsive governance has billions around the world near the breaking point, even in America and Western democracies.

It's one of several reasons for Obama's strategically timed bin Laden death announcement, despite clear evidence he died in December 2001 from kidney failure. Nonetheless, claiming a key "war on terror" victory bolsters his approval rating when it's sagging, and provides a timely boost to keep waging it across Eurasia, including perhaps against other countries yet to be attacked.

"By the time 'The 1st Great War of the 21st Century' is officially declared,' said Celente before Obama's May day announcement, "why it happened and who was behind it will have been obscured. Scapegoats will be found and sacrificed, as the underlying causes will be twisted to inflame patriotic fervor to rally nations against a 'common' enemy.' "

Will this "war to end all wars" be so widespread and deadly enough to convince people that no others can be tolerated. So far, however, life goes on, especially in America where people obsess more over bread and circuses than events affecting their lives. For how long is at issue as public despair and depravation grow.

Up to now, "the public....by and large, buys (official deception) to the predictable unhappy ending. Until, or unless, this vicious cycle is broken and the fraud is exposed for what it is: no 'Change that Anyone Can Believe In' is possible." For sure, not with Obama as president, in bed with big money wanting more of it.

In other words, no matter how often they're fooled, as long as majorities buy the big lie, politicians will pursue policies harming their welfare and futures. Only sustained US popular uprisings can change things - not protests, strong public anger expressing real demands for sweeping change, accepting nothing less.

So far, "the 1st great war of the 21st century" is ongoing mainly across Middle East and North African countries, being treated "largely (as an) Arab Awakening (from) decades of torpor" into yearning for social democracy.

For economist Paul Craig Roberts, its ingredients include "rising food and energy prices, high unemployment, and corrupt, unresponsive governments," explaining them as follows:

-- rising food and energy prices stem from Federal Reserve-caused dollar debasement, eliminating "position limits on speculators, and globalism, which replaced viable agricultural communities with monocultures."

-- creating unemployment by waging war on US workers, eroding unionism, offshoring jobs to low wage countries, privatizing public services, cutting wages and benefits while transferring massive wealth amounts to America's super-rich already with too much, and public officials remaining unresponsive to growing needs.

Roberts says "retrogress(ing)....America into one-class-rule lit another fuse." It remains for the spark to ignite it.

Calling the global economy fragile and interdependent, Celente says another "9/11 magnitude strike anywhere would cause a financial panic everywhere. Governments could (declare) a bank holiday," limiting money access and withdrawals. "Or a cyber attack (or natural disaster) could sabotage the entire system," crashing it altogether.

"Taken separately, the facts and stats were already sufficiently alarming, but" connecting them "add(s) up to the Great War." It won't simply be "a conflict between two great, polarized powers and their allies," though that may be part of it.

Instead, it "will be manifest as the World at War: class wars, tax wars, ethnic wars, civil wars, territorial wars, resource wars," and in some places perhaps "religious wars," among other reasons why intolerable conditions provoke extreme reactions.

Currently, events are developing in plain sight, but aren't recognized for what they are, including "(s)tudents on the ground, protesters in the square, fighter jets in the air, drones from afar," and sooner or later "bio-chem weapons, dirty bombs and nuclear" ones with far more destructive power than against Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Celente's advice: "Prepare, Survive, Prevail" or perish.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

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