Michael Collins

The Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), is a desperate man. He faces a test of his government in the March 30 local elections in Turkey. If his party candidates (AK Party) fail to maintain their current standings, the PM will face a loss of his tyrannical power. If the AK Party results for mayoral and other local offices drop significantly, Erdogan could soon face prosecution for massive corruption. (Image)

Since December17, 2013, current and former government ministers, their adult children, and AK Party business cronies have been charged with bid rigging, bribe taking, and outright theft. Support for the charges come almost daily through the release of wire taps of Erdogan and his cronies engaging in these activities. In one notable tape, Erdogan is heard giving his son Bilal explicit instructions to remove millions of dollars from a family home and disperse it to avoid a possible police raid.

Erdogan has fired and transferred prosecutors and police behind the investigations after charges were brought. He has been unable to convince prominent Turks, a majority of the population, and the international community that the leaked tapes are fakes. The audio files were broadcast on Twitter, which Erdogan banned last week.

The attack Syria false flag is Erdogan's last option to rally

Erdogan is out of tricks to maintain his popularity. Sixty percent of those recently polled said they believe that Erdogan's actions are deliberately stalling corruption investigations. Sixty percent state that they would not vote for Erdogan in the July presidential elections, an office that was all but certain to be his until the corruption charges.

The mayoral races in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's capital, are both within 2% for the AK Party and the main opposition People's Republican Party (CHP). That was before two prominent Islamic political leaders announced that they were abandoning support for Erdogan. The AK Party relies on a strong Islamic base to win. A recent poll showed the AK Party losing popularity in the local elections compared to 2009. Opposition parties fear election fraud in upcoming elections based on reports that the government is printing many more ballots than necessary.

A false flag operation by the Turkish military in response to a claimed Syrian attack may be Erdogan's last hope to survive the outcome of the March 30 elections. It appears that he has set this option in place over the past two months.

Turkish army ‘on alert’ as border tension rises was the headline on March 24. Prior to this "on alert" notice, Erdogan set up a false flag through the following actions:

March 20: Erdogan also announced that Turkey would defend the shrine of Süleyman Şah, founder of the Seljuk Empire in the 11th century. The shrine is 30 km inside Syria, just south of the Turkey-Syria border. There have been no indications that the Assad government had any intention of attacking the shrine.

March21: Erdogan claimed Syria was responsible for an attack on Turkish security forces. There was no evidence for this charge.

March23: A Turkish jet shot down a Syrian jet that came too close to Turkey's border

Erdogan's party gave him an overwhelming vote of confidence by passing a resolution in October 2012 giving the PM power to initiate hostilities against Syria should he feel the need. Once an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Erdogan turned on him in 2011 and offered support to the Obama administration - Gulf oil oligarch attack on Syria.

Erdogan must retain the type of power he's had in the past few years to continue his efforts to stop corruption investigations. If his support cracks through a poor performance in local elections, there will be even more defections from AK Party support and Erdogan's power will be diluted.

Based on the polling results, the strong performance of the CHP to date in major cities, and defections by prominent figures in the Islamic political movement, Erdogan had incentive to create a false flag with Syria to squeeze out a few points of popularity.

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