MichaelCollins

The Erdoğan gang, also known as the AK Party (AKP), stole the snap elections held in Turkey on Sunday, November 1. (Image: thierry ehrmann)

This was a make-or-break election for Turkish President Recep Erdoğan. Any outcome other than single party rule by the AKP threatened Erdoğan with prosecution for well-documented financial crimes and support for terrorists in Syria. Against the record of recent elections and against public opinion polling results, AKP increased it vote share over the June elections just enough to assure an absolute majority in parliament. The would-be Sultan was saved, at least for now.

The implications for Turkey are profound. The lessons learned about the decline of the rulers and elites in Europe and the United States are of great interest as well.

To believe that Erdoğan’s AKP won the election, you need to believe the following.

• AKP party support increased 16% above the public opinion poll predictions and 20% over the June general election total.

From June 7 through the last polls before the November elections, AKP public polling showed the AKP at a around 42% of the electorate. Nothing material happened in the last two weeks of the campaign to cause a rallying to AKP, yet the party support increased 16% above the poll predictions and 20% over the June general election total.

The two-week period to the election when public polling is legally banned should have held the AKP at its high point of 42% or degraded its support somewhat. A clear majority of Turkish citizens oppose Turkey’s support for Syrian rebels, including ISIS. Two public events were bombed killing nearly 200 HDP (Kurdish party) demonstrators. Both of these bombings were linked to ISIS, the worst of the Syrian rebel factions supported by the Erdoğan gang. How can a party gain 20% in two weeks when its policies, support for Syrian rebels, came home in the form of terrorist bombings?

A majority of Turkish citizens stated their preference for a coalition government after the June elections. This preference was rejected by the AKP, which mandated the November 1 election in order to seek out an absolute majority. Did the public suddenly change positions on coalition governments?

There is no explanation for the AKP burst of support because it didn’t happen.

• HDP, the party representing Turkish Kurds, 15% to 25% of the population, lost 20% of its vote in the June 7 general elections and was 18% off of the last public opinion polling despite daily attacks by President Erdoğan and the AKP.

The Kurdish party, HDP, reached its highest total vote ever in the June elections. Since that time, the Erdoğan AKP engaged in a relentless attack on Kurds and bombed Kurdish regions prior to the vote. The government also minimized the impact of two very public bombings of Kurdish political rallies. Are we expected to believe that HDP votes would drop under these conditions? Would any intellectually honest person believe that Turkey’s Kurds rallied to support their persecutors?

There is no explanation for the HDP’s loss of support because it didn’t happen.

• The main opposition party, CHP, ended up at 25% of the vote, two points below preelection polling, while the nationalists, MHP, dropped over 25% from the previous election.

These two parties are clearly defined political factions in Turkey, factions that strongly oppose AKP in absolute terms. We’re supposed to believe that their support was either flat, CHP, or collapsed, MHP, despite the fact that Erdogan and the AKP were even more offensive to these factions than at any point in recent history.

Coincidence Theory versus Reality

The AKP total vote total, 49.15% was 6.95 points above the poll predictions. This is almost equal to the points lost by the three opposition parties, 6.27 points, when you compare their vote totals with the same polls. If you believe in coincidence theories, that may be possible. However, given the situation Turkey and the blatant dictatorial control used to influence the election exercised by the Erdoğan AKP gang throughout the campaign, the most likely explanation is election fraud.

Why were polling locations closed early at 4 PM on election day in 32 heavily Kurdish provinces? Why did the AKP change polling locations in major cities that had voted overwhelmingly for the HDP? The Turkish supreme court ruled that these changes were illegal. Nevertheless, the changes remained in defiance of the court ruling.

Why did the AKP government arrest individuals for “insulting the president” during a political campaign? Journalists, prominent citizens and even a 14 year old were subjected to this distortion of Turkey’s legal system. What democracy tolerates the arrest of criticism of elected officials?

Why did the AKP government take over major media outlets, television and print, critical of AKP? The media outlets were occupied by police and seized by the government as the controlling trustee. Overnight, the criticisms of AKP turned into front-page support. What democracy allows the ruling government to seize media outlets, fire reporters, and change the content of the paper?

Nearly every day of the campaign, the CHP and MHP leaders called for the investigation of AKP’s President Erdoğan. The charges against the president were unrestrained, based on volumes of evidence of fraud by Erdoğan and his AKP cronies.

Turkey’s economy is faltering. The nation is no longer a favored destination for foreign investment. Foreign debt is significant and Turkish borrowers are facing trouble repaying foreign loans. Exports are down nearly 9%. Tourism has flattened out according to government sources (which can be interpreted as a significant decline since the AKP government lies routinely).

Turkish business was hit hard due to Erdoğan’s conflict with Russia. During the past week Russia blocked the trucks Turkish builders at its border. Russia also decreased its commitment of natural gas supplies to Turkey. Russia accounts for 55% of Turkey’s energy needs. The business community knows that Erdoğan’s belligerent, war like policies are the direct cause of these and other losses.

Preelection events predicted election day results. Erdoğan and AKP silenced individuals and then critical media outlets for two reasons: to suppress votes for AKP opponents as a result of reporting by these outlets and, more importantly, to silence any reporting on election fraud on election day, which was planned well before the elections.

US-EU Team Democracy Shows Its Colors

Prior to the election, those bastions of democracy, the rulers of United States and European Union, were largely silent about blatant, anti democratic AKP policies. Some western media protested the government takeover of media outlets and a few European parliamentarians worried about democracy in Turkey. No one in a position of power in the west stood up and told the truth about the obvious end of democracy in Turkey just before an election. The team democracy rulers can be counted on for further silence.

Why are the leaders of team democracy silent about the dictatorial actions of AKP? Why can we count on these hypocrites to remain silent?

The answer is simple. Erdoğan and the AKP are the main instigators of the influx of extremist Islamist and al Qaeda rebels in the effort to topple the government of Syria. The Turkish government provides weapons, training, and an open border with Syria. In addition, the Turks are accused of supporting ISIS financially through the purchase of oil stolen from conquered areas of Syria. In essence, Turkey is the last source of support for the U.S. – EU – Gulf oil state policy of destroying Syria.

If Turkey’s election results ended up with anything other than an AKP single party government, Turkey’s Syria policy would have quickly aligned with the overwhelming sentiment of the people. The support of terrorist rebels in Syria through weapons, training, transit, and financial support would be over.

The destruction of Syria would come to a quick end. The “moderate rebels,” Islamist extremists, al Qaeda rebels, and ISIS, would be out money, out of weapons, and out of business. The legitimate government of Syria would remain in place and likely be retained in power through elections. Obama, the neoconservatives, and nihilist puppet rulers in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany would incur an outright loss. That can’t happen, can it?

Also see series The Struggle for Turkey

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