RUSSTRAT Institute
(This article was originally published on 05 Jul 2022)

The NATO Summit adopted a new strategic concept of the alliance until 2030. According to this concept, "the Russian Federation represents the most significant and direct threat to the security of allies, as well as peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region."

During the two weeks of June, four significant events of the international agenda were held:

 ■ June 15, 2022 – meeting of the Contact Group on the Defence of Ukraine at NATO headquarters in     Brussels,
 ■ June 23-24 - the EU summit in Brussels,
 ■ June 26-28, 2022 – the summit of the "Big Seven" in the castle of Elmau in Germany and
 ■ June 28-30 - the NATO summit in Madrid.

The command and staff structures of the so-called rules-based global world held all four meetings with a clear anti-Russian bias.

The meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group was already the third in a row. It was attended by more than 50 countries of the world that provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine.

By the way, there were 40 countries at the first meeting on April 26, 2022, and 47 countries at the second meeting on May 23, 2022. This event, chaired by Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin, is held monthly.

In fact, we are talking about the gradual formation of an anti-Russian coalition from more than 50 countries of the world. Let me remind you that NATO has 30 members. Conditionally, this coalition can be called NATO+.

At this stage of its development, NATO+ is engaged in coordination on logistics and training of the Ukrainian military. As fast as Soviet equipment is knocked out and Soviet ammunition is spent, as well as the parallel process of saturation with Western weapons is continued, the share of logistics of the anti-Russian coalition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will tend to 100%.

If we talk about the nomenclature of weapons, there is a clear tendency to shift supplies in favour of increasingly heavy weapons. In February 2022, intensive supply to Ukraine began by the transfer of small arms, RPGs, ATGMs and MANPADS.

Now Ukraine receives tanks, BPM, armoured personnel carriers, self-propelled and towed barrel artillery, reconnaissance and strike UAVs, multiple launch rocket systems, anti-ship missiles and combat aircraft of Soviet production so far. Next in line are medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems (it's already announced), followed by long-range drones and American-made combat aircraft.

As for the training of the Ukrainian military, Britain alone offered a three-week training program that allows for 10,000 people to be trained every four months. Other NATO countries are also training the Ukrainian military.

At the summit of the heads of states and government of the European Union, a decision was made to grant Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate countries for EU membership. At the same time, Kiev and Chisinau submitted official applications for membership only on March 3, 2022. And then there is such speed in granting the status of a candidate country.

In this case, the mechanism of joining the European Union is used for the subsequent consolidation of these countries in the Western military-political space. And the acceleration of official procedures is due to the fact that the territories of Ukraine and Moldova may potentially enter the sphere of Russia's geopolitical influence in the near future.

According to the final statement of the G7 countries on support for Ukraine dated June 27, 2022, assistance to it will be provided indefinitely: "We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support and support Ukraine as long as necessary."

Up to $29.5 billion will be provided during 2022 "to eliminate the financing deficit" of the Ukrainian budget. Additional assistance in the amount of $3.5 billion will be provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation. In addition, Ukrainian exports will be supported due to the suspension of tariffs (duties).

We must understand that the indefinite military and financial assistance of the West to Ukraine means an indefinite war against Russia. "War to the last Ukrainian" is chosen as the key strategy of this armed conflict. The population of Ukraine has an unenviable fate either to die at the front, or to serve as a human shield during the battles in urban development.

The NATO Summit adopted a new strategic concept of the alliance until 2030. According to this concept, "the Russian Federation represents the most significant and direct threat to the security of allies, as well as peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region."

The document also says: "NATO can no longer consider the Russian Federation as its partner. Nevertheless, the alliance remains ready to maintain open channels of communication with Moscow to manage and reduce risks, prevent escalation and increase transparency."

At the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance, it was decided to increase the rapid reaction force from 40,000 to 300,000 people, i.e. seven and a half times. This number is approximately comparable to the total number of Russian peacetime ground forces.

In addition, NATO's advanced combat groups in Eastern Europe will be strengthened. The leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance also officially invited Finland and Sweden to the bloc.

The cherry on the cake for the NATO summit is information about a closed briefing at which US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin notified all European countries about the upcoming military clash with Russia in the medium term, including with the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

The important events of these two weeks can also be attributed to Lithuania's blocking of about 50% of overland transit to the Kaliningrad Region since June 18, as well as Norway's refusal on June 28 to allow cargo for Russian settlements on Svalbard through the Storskog checkpoint.

Thus, there is a further increase in tension in Europe. Clarity on the West's plans for Ukraine has appeared: the most inhumane strategy was chosen - "war to the last Ukrainian", a draw is impossible, only complete defeat and surrender of one of the parties.

Despite the abundance of challenges, the determining factor is Russia's determination and perseverance in achieving the goals of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. With the gradual establishment of control over the entire Ukrainian territory, the balance of forces in the European theatre of operations will inevitably change in favour of Russia.

Any uncertainty and half-measures in the course of it will be interpreted by our geopolitical opponents as weakness and will cause a sharp surge of escalation in other points along the perimeter of our country.

It is possible to avoid a limited nuclear war in Europe, no matter how the Anglo-Saxons tried to push through such a scenario. To do this, the Russian military infrastructure must appear in the underbelly of the United States – in Latin America.

An immediate and acute threat to decision-making centres in the continental United States is capable of bringing the American establishment to reason and forcing it to abandon its intention to unleash a military conflict in Europe with the use of nuclear weapons.

Source: RUSSTRAT Institute. IMG: © N/A. AWIP: http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/aL4z