by Tracy Turner

As the global oil demand continues to rise while reserves dwindle, the geopolitical landscape is poised for significant shifts.

If you could wave a magic wand (Governor Newsome), and make the entire Global Food Chain "electrified," there would be massive Global Hunger and Massive Starvation, worsening exponentially as the weeks and months wore on.

The history of oil and coal is the foundation of human development (population boom). The Industrial Revolution, beginning in the late 18th century, marked a significant shift in energy consumption. Coal became the primary fuel source for steam engines, factories, and later electricity generation. This transition allowed for mass production of food, leading to urbanization and massive, unending, totally unsustainable population growth.

In the 20th century, oil emerged as a dominant energy source. The discovery of vast oil reserves transformed economies and societies—oil-powered food transport vehicles and farm machinery, facilitating 8 billion People, worldwide.

The Urgent challenges of Food Security in the Post-Peak-Oil Era

As we approach the post-peak-oil era—estimated to occur within the next few decades—the food security challenges become increasingly pressing. The post-peak-oil era refers to the period after global oil production reaches its maximum rate and begins to decline. This decline will likely lead to higher energy costs and reduced agricultural productivity, posing significant threats to food security. Climate change exacerbates these issues by affecting weather patterns, reducing crop yields, and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Resource shortages will also emerge as water scarcity becomes more prevalent due to over-extraction and pollution. Food security will be threatened as populations continue to grow while resources dwindle. Countries that rely heavily on imported food may face severe shortages, leading to social unrest and conflict over remaining arable land.

Critique of Governor Gavin Newsom’s Policies

Governor Gavin Newsom’s focus on environmental regulations—such as waging war on gas-powered garden tools like string trimmers—appears misguided when viewed against the backdrop of looming food crises. While reducing emissions from small engines is essential for air quality and climate goals, it distracts from addressing critical issues like sustainable agriculture and food security. By prioritizing minor environmental concerns over substantial threats such as resource depletion and potential famine, Newsom risks overlooking the broader implications of his policies. The impending crisis could resemble a slow-motion train wreck: predictable yet ignored until it becomes catastrophic. This negligence mirrors historical conflicts over resources seen in Iraq and Ukraine and even Gaza (Natural Gas) —nations where competition for oil or farmland has led to widespread violence. As agricultural systems falter due to climate change and energy shortages post-peak oil, similar conflicts will arise domestically or internationally.

While environmental initiatives are necessary for long-term sustainability, they must uphold urgent issues like food security that threaten societal stability in the coming decades.

Anticipating Oil and Farmland Wars as Global Oil Depletion Looms

As the global oil demand continues to rise while reserves dwindle, the geopolitical landscape is poised for significant shifts. The depletion of oil resources is not merely an environmental or economic issue; it has profound implications for international relations, resource allocation, and even conflict. This analysis will explore how oil depletion could lead to disputes over farmland. This crucial resource may become increasingly valuable as alternative energy sources are sought, and agricultural production becomes essential for sustaining populations.

The Crucial Interconnection Between Oil Depletion and Food Scarcity

1. Understanding Oil Depletion Oil is a finite resource, and its extraction rates have begun to decline in many regions worldwide. Competition for remaining reserves intensifies as countries scramble to secure their energy needs. This scarcity can lead to starvation.
2. Impact on Agriculture: Agriculture heavily depends on fossil fuels—not only for machinery but also for fertilizers and transportation. As oil becomes scarcer and more expensive, food production costs will rise. This could lead to food shortages in already vulnerable regions, exacerbating existing tensions.

Emerging Conflicts Over Farmland

Farmland as a Strategic Asset With the decline of oil availability, farmland may emerge as a new strategic asset. Nations with arable land could find themselves in a position of power, leading to potential conflicts over these resources. Countries facing food insecurity may attempt to acquire farmland in more fertile regions through diplomatic negotiations or military interventions.

Historical Precedents: History provides numerous examples of resource scarcity leading to conflict. The 20th century saw various wars driven by access to oil (e.g., the Gulf War). Similarly, as agricultural land becomes scarce due to climate change and urbanization, we might witness similar patterns where nations engage in disputes over fertile territories.

Potential Scenarios of Conflict

Increased Nationalism: As countries face energy shortages and rising food prices, nationalism may surge. Governments could prioritize securing their agricultural resources at the expense of international cooperation, leading to trade wars or territorial disputes.

Corporate Interests: Multinational corporations may play a significant role in this dynamic by investing heavily in agriculture and land acquisition in developing countries. This can create tensions between local populations seeking control over their land and foreign entities looking to exploit these resources.

Climate Change Complications: Climate change exacerbates these issues by affecting global crop yields and water availability. Regions already struggling with droughts or floods may see increased migration pressures from those seeking better living conditions elsewhere, potentially leading to conflicts over land use.

Countries That Have Fought Wars Over Resources

1. Oil:

• The Iraq War (2003) was significantly influenced by oil interests.
• The Gulf War (1990-1991) involved Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, primarily driven by oil resources.

2. Gas:

• The Russo-Ukrainian War has elements related to natural gas pipelines and energy security.

3. Coal:

• Conflicts over coal have been less prominent in recent history but can be traced back to the Second Boer War (1899-1902), which involved control over gold and diamond resources, including coal.

4. Farmland:

• The Darfur conflict (2003-present) in Sudan has roots in competition or land and water
  resources
The ongoing tensions between Israel and Palestine also involve disputes over agricultural land.

Current Conflicts Over Resources