Robert David

William McKinley: The Mastermind of American Flourishing

The 25th President William McKinley had his term neglected because his successor, Theodore Roosevelt, is often regarded to be the more influential president. Regardless of this fact, the McKinley’s administration (1897-1901) laid down the groundwork for American dominance as a global superpower during his term. 

His policies, especially with the Dingley Tariff of 1897, were proof of his vision. He raised tariffs, in attempt to protect American businesses. While many would argue that it only made things worse, it did provide some temporary relief to the economy after the Panic of 1893, which was arguably the most devastating recession in the country’s history before McKinley’s policies.

The US emerged with an identity as a colonial power after McKinley’s presidency and, during his term, the annexation of Hawaii and victory in the Spanish-American War helped achieve that identity. This period also marked the beginning of what is referred to as the “American Century,” comprising unmatched economic growth and power. Although McKinley’s assassination in 1901 curtailed his visionary plans, he did set the stage for the economic prosperity which characterized the early 20th century.

McKinley started the trend of campaigning using a telephone, marking the first time voters and politicians could interact in real time. He also was the first to use campaign buttons on a wide scale.

Herbert Hoover: The Engineer of Ineptitude

Even the commendable achievements of Herbert Hoover, such as orchestrating food relief efforts during World War I, are vastly overshadowed by his missteps as the president of the United States during the Great Depression. The 31st Chief Executive, the Great Depression is arguably the most notable facet in Hoovers life. Hoover was applauded as a humanitarian and a gifted engineer and earned international acclaim for his efforts during World War I. As a secretary of commerce under Presidents Harding and Coolidge, Hoover was already garnering popularity for being an innovator and intelligent business manager. 

In 1929 to1933 Hoover’s term started on a promising note, but following the stock market crash of 1929 dampened his spirits entirely. Instead of solely focusing on a laissez-faire approach to crisis control like many presidents tend to do, Hoover did implement some strategies. In addition to invoking voluntary business cooperation to retain employment levels, he single handedly set the groundwork for the Hoover Dam, which jumpstarted public work efforts. But none of Hoover’s strategies proved effective in limiting The Great Depression.

Andrew Mellon: The Mastermind of the 1920s Economic Boom and the Onset of the Great Depression

Andrew Mellon, the Secretary of the Treasury during the tenures of Presidents Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover, served some of the most notable figures in history, standing out for remarkable events of the 1920s. In the earlier part of the 20th century, Mellon was known to be an affluent banker and an industrial hero and even long before the phrase emerged, he practiced, and defended, supply-side economics. His ideology highly suggested that taxes on the wealthiest individuals and corporations should be lowered to encourage greater expenditure on capital and subsequent economic development. Such principles are even today referred to as ‘Mellonism’ caused the unparalleled increase in the economy during the Roaring Twenties The United States underwent in the 1920s. 

This big boom brought with it a host of consequences and as with his most effective fiscal policy, the Revenue Act of 1926, he also sharply reduced the top marginal tax rate from 46% to 25% which helped increase capital investment and speculation activity, especially from the masses in the stock market. Alongside these clear benefits, such policies deepened the gap the rich and poor leading to an increase in economic disparity.

Mellon's impact during the Great Depression is often overlooked. When the economy began to collapse in 1929, he famously told Hoover to, “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate,” thinking that eliminating excesses would speed up recovery. Mellon's loose-fisted ways of dealing with the economy, along with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, made the financial disaster even worse.

Mellon was always very supportive of the art world, and very achieved, he is better known for his collection of art he donated to the United States government which was used to construct the National Gallery of Art that is located in Washington, D.C. This legacy of philanthropy sharply contrasts with his more offensive economic policies.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act: A Catalyst for Global Economic Ruin

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 is recognized as one of the most controversial legislation in America’s history. The Act aimed to protect American industries from international competition by exceeding previous tariffs on 20,000 goods. Although, its negative consequences were unimaginable.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 1930 is notorious for inciting retaliatory tariffs from foreign nations as a result of unforeseen consequences. This led to world trade coming to a standstill. With the cut down on international trade, U.S. exports suffered drastically, declining by almost 60% from 1929 to 1933, worsening the economic decline even more. This Act is one of the major reasons that sparked the Great Depression. This goes to show the adverse impact protectionist policies can have on a country.

Over 1,000 economists petitioned President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, warning that it could damage the global economy irreparably. Despite this, Hoover yielded to political pressure from protectionist factions and signed the bill into law.

Donald Trump's 2025 Presidency: A New Epoch of Populism and Protectionism

With the return of Donald Trump to presidency in 2025, a period I call ‘The Transformation,’ my country’s politics and economics radically changed. Following his ‘America First’ theory, Trump put into place a series of reforms to change the federal government and the international economy. His administration’s primary focus had the unprecedented shift in policy to establish the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) at the helm of which was the maverick billionaire, Elon Musk. Both men are meddling with and “fixing” an economy that was far from broken. They have set into motion forces they cannot rein back in – largely, an absence of trust by global investors.

Elon Musk as the Architect of D.O.G.E.

Musk is known to have transformed businesses and was appointed to do something about the federal machinery. He was tasked to cut down on government spending, reduce bureaucracy, and help make the government more efficient. Musk’s tactics were definitely out of the box; he started laying off federal workers because he claimed that the government needed to implement austerity measures and upgrade itself. Although, many people thought this was a reckless move that hurt vital services, several others congratulated Musk for taking needed actions to fix the inefficiency of the government. He is fixing a government he does not comprehend.

Cuts to Foreign Aid: During Trump's presidency, ruthless cuts to overseas assistance were made with the rationale that spending would be redirected to other domestic interests. Trump and his cohorts are establishing welfare programs for the richest people. These reductions were spent on aid to farmers, humanitarian assistance, development projects, and military relief, which strained relations with America’s allies and left gaps in international leadership. Too many people are saying these cuts will negatively impact the United States and worsen instability. 

Trump offered the deepest cuts to US funding in history claiming that it increased America’s stature globally. Historically speaking, alongside Joseph McCarthy, he drastically reduced humanitarian and developmental assistance. Throughout the 90’s and into the 21st century, America had served as a world leader in providing foreign aid along with the United Nations. International spending on infrastructure development has far outpaced humanitarian funding during the previous decade. 

The 2025 Chinese Trade Wars and Tariffs: Like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which Trump raised during trade with Canada, China, and Mexico, Trump also enacted harsh tariffs. The goal was to limit immigration, encourage foreign investment which would return American jobs back to America, but it severely hurt foreign partner nations, creating massive problems in the global economy. Under Trump, both the U.S. conflict with Mexico and Canada, as well as China, became primary focuses of his rule. This is similar to the US telling its citizens that there were limits on the free trade of goods and services during the 1930s.

Trump's grandfather, Friedrich Trump, was a German emigrant who amassed a fortune through the hotel and real estate industries during the Klondike Gold Rush. The Trump family fortune originates in the speculative booms of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Parallels Between 1929 and 2025: A Speculative Examination

The economic conditions preceding the 1929 crash exhibit remarkable resemblances to the present era, invoking fears of an impending downturn in 2025. Below are some key parallels:

1.    Speculative Frenzies: The 1920s were marked by a speculative bubble in the stock market, fueled by loose credit and excessive optimism. Likewise, the 2020s have experienced a surge in speculative activity, especially in cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, and technology startups. The collapse of FTX and other crypto entities in 2022-2023 has drawn striking parallels to the market crash 1929.

2.    Wealth Disparity: The 1920s witnessed a dramatic surge in wealth inequality, with the wealthiest 1% amassing a disproportionate share of national wealth. A similar trend has emerged in the modern era, with the top 1% now controlling over 30% of the nation's wealth. This disproportionate wealth concentration raises alarms about economic stability and social cohesion.

3.    Protectionism and Trade Wars: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff 1930 responded to economic pressures but exacerbated the global recession. Similarly, the Trump administration's trade wars, particularly with China, have disrupted global supply chains, raising concerns about the long-term impacts of rising protectionism.

4.    Technological Disruption: The 1920s saw advancements in automobiles, radio, and household technology, altering industries and displacing workers. Today, artificial intelligence, automation, and renewable energy are driving economic growth but also creating significant disruptions.

5.    Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's tight monetary policies in the late 1920s are often cited as contributing to the Great Depression. Today, the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation have similarly raised concerns about the potential for a future economic contraction.
 
Lessons from History

The resemblances between the 1920s and the 2020s are as striking as they are sobering. Speculative excesses, wealth inequality, protectionism, and technological disruption contributed to the Great Depression. 

Similarly, these conditions in the 2020s raise alarms about the potential economic downturn 2025.
The historical lessons are clear: unchecked speculation, protectionism, and wealth disparity can bring about catastrophic consequences. Policymakers must tread carefully, ensuring a delicate balance between fostering innovation and maintaining economic stability. The legacies of McKinley, Hoover, Mellon, Trump, and Musk serve as cautionary reminders of the profound interplay between politics, economics, and technology.
As we face the future, the question remains: will we heed the lessons of history, or will we succumb to the same forces that led to the economy's downfall nearly a century ago?

Parallels Between Trump and Hoover, and Musk and Mellon

As we sit back and view Donald Trump's 2025 presidency and the uncanny similarity it has to the economic depression of 1929, we see significant parallels between Trump's policies and Herbert Hoover's. Just as Hoover, Trump's protectionism—most significantly through tariffs on foreign products—is bringing to mind the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, which aggravated the Great Depression. 

Both presidents sought to protect American industries, but their policies had unintended global economic implications, as retaliatory tariffs and dislocated trade further taxed international relations and dented the global economy. Trump's cuts in vital services, including foreign aid, recall Hoover's half-hearted response to the economic downturn, demonstrating a reluctance to engage with the systemic issues causing the slump.

In economics, the comparison between Trump's style of leadership in the field of government efficiency under Elon Musk and Andrew Mellon's influence is also fascinating. Musk, an outsider billionaire who has been entrusted with restructuring government bureaucracy, is the equivalent of Mellon as a wealthy industrialist and Secretary of the Treasury during the 1920s. Both men brought their philosophies of business into government, calling for austerity, cuts, and tax policies favorable to the wealthy. 

Mellon's policies, intended to spur economic growth, merely increased wealth inequity and contributed to the eventual stock market crash of 1929. Similarly, Musk's agenda of reducing government spending and implementing "efficiency" at the expense of vital public services is also called into question in terms of increasing inequality and long-term stability, similar to the negative effects of Mellon's economic ideology.

In summary, both the Trump and Hoover presidencies and the careers of Musk and Mellon are a warning about protectionism, unregulated wealth concentration, and the use of business leaders as the basis for economic policy-making. History classes, from the Great Depression to the current times, force us to study the intersection of economic growth, inequality, and the interventionist role of the government during the time of crisis. History can easily repeat itself, leading to another economic meltdown.

Donald Trump and Elon Musk – The Architects of Adversity

Trump and Musk are not only walking in Hoover and Mellon’s footsteps--they are also firing hundreds of thousands of people, permanently breaking government bureaus and agencies. Their spokespeople claim low unemployment numbers even as they destroy jobs, agencies and industries. Hoover and Mellon did not destroy American farmers as Trump and Musk are doing. Hoover and Mellon accidentally broke the back of the World Economy, Trump and Musk are doing so on purpose, to prop up themselves and their Robber Baron, Oligarch friends. The Oligarchs are isolated from the cost of eggs, food, medicine, cars, gasoline, medical bills. The rest of the planet is not. Trump talks of his “mandate” like it is a mandate of God. It is antithetical to the will of the American people.

Both Foreign and Domestic Investors have the jitters from Trump’s own personal demons, his daily changes of mind and heart economically. Is it some economic genius we mere dullards cannot fathom, or is it onset Alzheimer’s Disease, like Fred Drumpf?

Trump and his sycophants remain mostly mute about Warren Buffet and his brilliant advisors taking $334 billion dollars out of the stock market, primarily out of Apple and Bank of America Stocks. 

How Trump's 2025 Presidency Mirrors the 1929 Economic Great Depression Crisis: An Analysis into History's Parallels

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© 2025 Robert David